UK Universities Stand Alone in Using Predicted Grades to Award University Places

The University and College Union (UCU) is calling on Universities to stop awarding university places based on predicted grades.

UCU claims that the UK is the only nation which uses predicted grades, with research suggesting as few as one in six A-level grade predictions is actually correct.

It says the system encourages the use of unconditional offers, which can lead to students working less hard for their A-levels and achieving lower than expected grades as a result.

The Post Qualifications Admissions: How it works around the world report, written by Dr Graeme Atherton for UCU looked at the higher education admissions systems in 30 countries across the globe including Germany, Singapore and the USA. It finds that only England, Wales and Northern Ireland use a system of predicted grades to make offers of university places.

The report concluded that the current system of predicted grades encourages the use of unconditional offers, which critics, including universities minister Sam Gyimah, have said make a mockery of exams and put students under enormous pressure to make snap decisions about their future.

UCU general secretary Sally Hunt said: 'We are alone in the world in using a system where students are offered university places based on highly inaccurate predicted grades. The current system has many failings and many critics, including the universities minister. Unconditional offers have made a mockery of exams and led to inflated grade predictions while putting students under enormous pressure to make a snap decision about their future.

"The simplest and fairest way to deal with these problems is for us to adopt a system of post-qualification admissions, where offers are based on actual achievement rather than estimated potential, as the rest of the world does. It's time for the government to give the system the urgent overhaul it needs."

Malcolm Trobe, Deputy General Secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) added "ASCL echoes the concerns in this report about the use of predicted grades to award university places and calls on the government to review the system urgently. Out of date and no longer fit for purpose, it is a historical quirk which is not mirrored in other countries and creates unnecessary problems.

“In particular, we are extremely concerned about the rising number of unconditional offers made to students before they have taken their A-levels. This practice can demotivate students and lead to underperformance in these important qualifications which disadvantages them if prospective future employers take their A-level grades into account. Moving to a system of post-qualifications admissions would end the practice of unconditional offers.

“There are practical challenges in introducing a system of post-qualifications admissions but we do not believe these are insurmountable.”